Thoughts from round 2 of the RWC

Fiji ecstatic over an historic win

Round two of the RWC is past us and round three is on our doorstep and while controversial red cards persist through this tournament I hope to shed light on a more positive story emerging through this years World Cup. Sunday saw a well organised and pragmatic Fiji victorious against Australia after no less than 69 years since their last win over the Wallabies. Fiji have often yo-yo’d between world cups going from qualifying for quarter-finals one year, to finishing bottom of the table the next with a plateau ending mid table at the last three tournaments. After this historic win there’s now murmurs of them potentially topping their pool for the first time ever and this got me thinking, what has been the other emerging nations trajectories thus far in the tournaments up until this one and do they have the potential to have their best tournament yet?

For this I can only cover teams who have had a regular history of qualifying for the RWC (sorry Portugal and Chile) and also ones that are in this tournament, so USA and Canada will also have to wait their turn. I’ll be using the teams points difference and overall table points from the group stages to asses their performance tournament to tournament.

If we keep with the Pacific Islands we can first take a look at Tonga, who have only missed a tournament in ’91 when the didn’t qualify. Since then they experienced a peak in ’07 and ’11 managing 9 table points in each and a combined points difference of only -25, not bad after a record points difference low just the previous tournament at -132. Since then there has been a slight drop of performance only securing 6 points in the following two tournaments but not quite the depths of 2003’s attempt. Tonga have only played Ireland so far and with South Africa on the horizon its looking unlikely that they’ll manage it out of the group but a 3rd place finish is still on the cards. This weekend they face a Scotland that took the Boks close in their opening game but at a great cost. An injury riddled Scotland might be just what Tonga need to get a foothold in this group and with an almost certain win over Romania, Tonga have every opportunity to finish third.

Uruguay had a two tournament hiatus and re-qualified in 2015 but had a disappointing campaign managing zero table points and a whooping -196 points difference. Since then they’ve managed to close the gap on the points difference going to -80 in the last tournament and even managing 4 table points for a win against eventual 3rd place finishers Fiji. This year Uruguay find themselves in a group with Italy and Namibia and after an incredible performance against France, Italy should be worried. Even though the Azure are the better team on paper and can boast about several superstars which they haven’t been able to do in the past, Chile showed the rugby world they’re ready to make some upsets this tournament. If Los Terros can keep the All blacks to under a 50 point loss which after watching the France game seems reasonable, then an easy 5 points against Namibia and an Italy fixture that could swing each way, this could definitely be Uruguays best tournament yet.

Romania have managed to score table points at every RWC since it’s inception apart from two. 2011 when they also had a difference of -125 and 2019, when they were banned for fielding illegal players in their qualifying matches. The break from the tournament has seemed to hinder them greatly though as after playing the top two teams they’re already sitting at -150 and with lacklustre performances that don’t instil hope for their coming fixtures against Scotland and then Tonga, anything short of a miracle will see Romania stone last in their group and maybe in the tournament entirely. If this trajectory continues Romania could be looking at getting leapfrogged by an emerging Spain in the next RWC. 

We all know about the Miracle in Brighton that made history for the Japanese but what’s happened since? Well, they manage to reach a quarter final in their home tournament in 2019, topping the group unbeaten and only losing to the eventual winners South Africa. but since then they haven’t quite been drawing the same results and having only four fixtures this year before the tournament is worrying for a team that showed so much promise after a meteoric rise in 2015. This tournament they’ve already achieved a bonus point win and sit in a group that they could feasibly exit if Argentina don’t improve after a woeful performance against England. Samoa may be the unknown joker that could unsettle this whole group though. 

Samoa were not invited to the very first RWC but since they joined the party they’ve managed to pick up points every single campaign, qualifying out of the group in their first two tournaments and reaching a play-off in their third. Since then they’ve gradually dropped off in performance but with the new eligibility laws coming in - allowing players who have previously been swept up by bigger nations to return to their home nations to play internationally again - could see Samoa back on the rise with a team of highly experienced international tournament players. Reiterating, if Argentina do not manage to find their previous form that managed to topple the All Blacks earlier this year, it could mean that second place would be a shoot out between Samoa and Japan.

Are Italy still an emerging nation? 23 years of competing with the best in the Six Nations and they’ve rarely finished any higher than fifth position. But how has this translated to their performances in the RWC? Since their involvement into the 6N they’ve gradually had better results every four years. ’99 they only managed 3 table points but in ’03 and onwards they received 8, 9, 10, 10 and 12 respectively (the final one including 2 for a cancelled game against New Zealand due to Typhoon Hagibis) so they’re showing consistency with an ever changing opposition which is no mean feat when we’ve observed here that consistency of performance when climbing the rugby ladder can actually count as success. So maybe instead of looking at their 6N performance to gauge their success we can look at their RWC performance and in-turn use them as an example to include the other emerging nations mentioned in this blog opportunities in higher performing annual competitions, not because they’ll excel in those competitions but because their involvement will help these nations improve in the grander overall scheme.

All teams in Africa can be prisoners to their own geography and politics while also being victims to the astronomic success of their brothers to the south. There’s no doubt that the sub-saharan nations can produce talented players, and the proximity effect to South Africa can be both a help and a hindrance. The Africa Nations Cup was revamped in 2019 to provide a two year long competition but due to Covid-19 the project wasn’t fully realised. Having only two games this year to practise for the tournament it’s safe to say that Namibia are dangerously undercooked and risk setting themselves back quite a distance however they still will not be replaced as the 2nd African team seeing as in the last RAC they beat Kenya 36-0 in the final. Maybe initiatives from the established nations who have had *ahem* “historical interest” in the African nations can lead programmes to their respective, language relevant nations to improve the rugby. Fiji have shown that talent can overcome financial difficulties and simple coaching clinics and access to kit can start the metaphorical ball rolling to make sure Namibia have the local opposition they need on a regular basis.

Georgia joined the global competition relatively late in 2003 and had a gradual rise up until 2015 then seemed to fall off a cliff only managing 5 table points in 2019 where they faced a near identical pool to this year. Australia may have managed to beat the Lelos by 20 points but in two weeks they face an underperforming Wales who have just lost to Fiji and Georgia managed to beat last year for the first time ever. The odds are still firmly against Georgia for a quarter-final but a solid game against Portugal and taking Wales and Fiji close will award them their third place finish and automatic qualification to RWC Australia 2027.