Looking Ahead
With a penultimate round of games that didn’t reveal too many surprising results I’ve decided to take a look forward into the possibilities of what this weekend’s final round of pool stage fixtures could bring. Who still has a shot at a last minute qualification to the quarters, who is fighting it out for an automatic qualification for Australia 2027 and who’s being sent home to repeat the gruelling four year battle to qualify again.
Pool A
France are set to play an humbled Italy after their frankly embarrassing performance against the All Blacks Last Friday. Les Blue will be aiming for nothing less than a five point win but without their talisman Dupont they may want to tread carefully. They struggled against Uruguay when playing with their weaker team and a loss this weekend could see them knocked out of their home competition. Quite some pressure for whoever coach Gautier selects as often chasing that forth try can encourage risqué play that opposition can capitalise on. Italy will be smarting from that defeat and still have a mathematical chance to qualify so be prepared for them to throw the kitchen sink at this, their likely final game of RWC 2023.
New Zealand will have the first game of round four tonight against Uruguay and having found their rhythm against Italy they’ll be planning on putting a similar number on Uruguay. I believe we may even see our first triple digit score of the tournament here to send the clearest message to their quarterfinal rivals. Namibia are done and dusted, all four games without a single tournament point and -218 in points difference. Let’s hope they get the funding and local competition they need in the next four years to make their next appearance to the tournament actually mean something.
Pool B
South Africa against Ireland was a game for the ages and for a punter it offered a brutality that we’ve been clamouring after for a long time, both teams also managed to keep all fifteen men on the field for the full eighty minutes which in this competition is no mean feat. But what effect does playing in a pool stage game like that have on a team, especially when Ireland have to back up their performance to take on annual opponents Scotland, who haven’t beaten them since 2017 but still haven’t quite hit their potential yet. Could Scotland be hiding something up their selves to kick their Celtic brothers out of their most anticipated tournament yet? South Africa are sitting pretty at the top of the table with only one loss and plenty of time to prepare for their inevitable quarterfinal, a likely New Zealand or France. Both Tonga and Romania will be going head to head for the opportunity to avoid finishing bottom and leaving France with some pride, but not much more. Based on the previous performances of this tournament your money would be best wagered on Tonga coming out of this fixture with a five point win.
Pool C
Initially titled as the Pool of Death before the competition started and proven to be the most dramatic as the following weeks have unfolded. Each game will hold importance as Australia have finished their pool games, limping to a mere total of eleven points and now relying on Fiji to completely implode against Portugal, who will surely want to go out with a bang. Fiji and Portugal are matched up well - as two teams who can play from anywhere on the field - so we can expect this to be a high scoring game that will eventually lean heavy in Fiji’s favour. Georgia played smart last week against Fiji but will have to bring something more to the table if they want to upset pool leaders Wales, but do keep in mind, when these two teams last met Georgia managed an historic one point win over Crymu and with the potential of coach Gatland resting players for the bigger fixture we may see that lightning can in fact strike twice. Wales have nothing to lose as they qualify either way but who wants to enter a quarterfinal after losing your last game?
Pool D
England have already settled comfortably at the top of the table with their eyes set on the upcoming quarters but still have the unnerving obstacle of Samoa to navigate first. A game they’re sure to win but getting through it without injuries or cards may be their biggest challenge. Argentina and Japan are set for a straight shoot-out for that coveted second place finish and qualification to the quarters while Chile are set to leave their maiden tournament with no points but recognition on the rugby map and new respect for the future of rugby in South America (step aside North America?) If we return to the Japan Argentina Game, these two teams have only ever faced each other once before in 2016 and it was a clear dominant performance by Argentina but that was a long time ago and Argentina haven’t been the powerhouse that we were expecting, showing yo-yoing performances which makes them unpredictable but also unreliable. Meanwhile Japan have put in consistent performances showing that that can stay within games against greater opponents for longer than expected. Both have a curiously similar result against the other three teams in the pool proving that this game should be a thriller.
My recommendations for the weekends viewing:
Game of the pool
A - France v Italy
B - Ireland v Scotland
C - Fiji v Portugal
D - Japan v Argentina
Incase you were wondering, here is the performances of all the teams if they were to theoretically exist on the same table.
