Semifinal Discipline
We are on day one of the semifinals of what has been arguably the most exciting Rugby World Cup ever! The last weekend saw two fairytale story’s come to a sickening end with Ireland getting knocked out of the quarterfinals yet again by none other than the perennially successful All Blacks. Following that Frances hopes of lifting the cup in front of their home nation got scuppered by an undeniably ballsy performance from the Springboks. This does somewhat leave us with a slightly deflated semifinal though with two powerhouses of World Cup rugby up against an upstart and a has-been in Argentina and England respectively.
If you were to listen to the bookies, pundits and most fans you’d understand there is a high likelihood of both New Zealand and South Africa progressing to the finals without much trouble but there has been one aspect of the game that can swing the balance dramatically and instantly and that is the possibilities of cards. My very first blog on the RWC was about cards and more importantly the head contact initiatives. In the first two rounds of the Pool stages we witnessed severe rulings around any and all situation where there were head contact, however now having watched the quarterfinals there seems to have been an unannounced retraction around these calls after seeing several headshots being called as rugby incidents. That being said I still wouldn’t be surprised to see a card decide a match in this coming weekend. Cards aside, overall discipline and having the referee on your side will be vital and if we take a look at some of the stats we can really see who could take an edge tonight and tomorrow.
Over the entire RWC 2023 New Zealand have both conceded the most penalties while also collecting the most cards of each colour. That’s an average of 9.6 pens’ per game over their five RWC fixtures. Their opponents Argentina are not far behind, averaging at 9.4 pens’ per game which only leaves them a total of one penalty less in total over their five fixtures. One thing to keep in mind is Argentina has been improving on their penalty count since the first game while the All Blacks have been consistent with their higher count. If Argentina can keep this discipline streak going they could deny New Zealand easy meters and points and keep in the game a lot longer than expected and in knockout rugby, staying in the game is key. The longer you keep the ref on your side by showing them the picture they want to see then the more attention and scrutiny your opposition receives. If Argentina have a penalty count below three at half time, we may just see them returning next week in the finals.
South Africa have the best discipline count of the remaining teams and don’t be shocked if this continues. They have only stooped to eleven pens’ in a single game while England have managed that twice already. One thing to note here out of all the remaining teams is England are the only nation who have managed to receive zero yellow cards! Keeping Curry’s red card aside, to receive no yellows in approximately four hundred minutes of rugby is astonishing and nearly unheard of, in-fact England are the only team to not receive a yellow in this tournament. This could be the point of difference that keeps England in the fight against a Springbok side that are already pushing the envelope when it comes to tactics that borderline cynical or dangerous behaviour that can teeter opinion depending on which ref you get on the day and their mood. If you see an early card for South Africa, this could be the thread that unravels the five years of Springbok dominance.